From a post called The Next Big Thing from my old blog, The Talk Locker, on June 9, 2016:
There are likely to be bumps along the way, but to return to my original point, these assistants are the next “big thing”, and the interface is conversation. Whether that be voice or typing, chatting to a digital assistant will be how you get things done. It’s artificial intelligence that drives an autonomous vehicle. It’s artificial intelligence that filters your gMail. These assistants are getting smarter all the time, and before too long, I think you will be using them for many day to day tasks to alleviate your time to do more important things. I can already hear people complaining that this will make people more antisocial, to the point where people will have these assistants speak on their behalf to their friends. This is a story for another blog post, but I will just say this: be responsible with this technology. It has the power to bring you closer with family and friends. Use Siri to help plan your day, use Google Assistant to book your next trip. Use Cortana to order a pizza! But call your Mum. Text your friends. Go outside. Use this technology responsibly.
Even I’m surprised I got so much of this right, looking 10 years into the future. Apple, Google and Microsoft still have their assistants, though Siri is the only familiar name. The others have re-branded several times (remember Bard?). Most of these assistants now run on large language models, like ChatGPT. Siri, despite being the first major voice assistant to market, has been the last one to finally be upgraded to a LLM powered digital assistant, as Apple announced this week at their Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC).
Without my use of Codex, OpenAI's coding agent, I would never have been able to build Passing Notes. As I wrote about in my last post, I’ve tried on and off to learn different programming languages with various levels of success. Even now, I would love to be able to write Swift. But I was able to prompt Codex to build Passing Notes, refine it, and publish to the App Store in about two weeks.
Let’s tackle the most obvious criticism of using AI for almost anything - "it’s taking work away from app developers". In a way, yes, it absolutely is. People will use AI to build apps that they would otherwise have hired someone to do. Companies will hire fewer software developers because the developers that they have on staff can be more productive with AI. But in an important other way, if you took Codex away from me - I could not and would not have made this app.
As I mentioned earlier, I don’t have the coding ability to build the app myself. I also don’t have the money to pay a developer to build the app for me. What I do have is a good sense of how good apps work, and what they should look and feel like. I acted as a product manager with Codex as my app developer. I am still pinching myself that I have an app that I made in the App Store. And I can tell you I’m not stopping. I have at least half a dozen projects in various stages of development - apps, websites, the site you’re reading now - that would only have been a fleeting thought a few years ago.
Prior to GarageBand, if a band wanted to get a track recorded, it would cost thousands of dollars in studio time, mixing and mastering. Now, musicians are able to record their own demos to send to producers, and in some cases even record, mix and master a track themselves and make the charts!
Spreadsheet software, the printing press, digital cameras - this is not a new story. Some people are excited by it, others are furious. My thoughts are the same as they were 10 years ago (almost to the day) - disruptive technologies, such as the new wave of LLM powered agents, have the power to advance or destroy industries in very real ways. Our governments absolutely should regulate against the more destructive uses, but there’s no denying that these personified robots can help us be a lot more productive.
I’ve made some apps just for me - a time tracking app, and a personal finance app. I don’t ever plan to release these apps - but I built them to make me more productive. LLM powered coding agents are democratising software development. People will start building widgets, menubar apps, shortcuts and Safari extensions, to suit exactly their workflows.
I predict (and let’s revisit in another 10 years shall we?) that there will be more software written, by more people, for more niche categories.
On an episode of ATP last month, Marco Arment described how he built an app, Saunter Map, for a charity walk he participated in that can:
- Track your location and progress along the route
- See how far the next restrooms and refreshments are
- Estimate your time of completion based on your current location and target pace
Even for Marco, an experienced app developer, this app would not have been made had it not been for AI - it would have taken too long to build for how niche the app is.
Ten years ago I wrote about "the next big thing" being digital assistants. Well, here we are. Whilst many joked about Google suggesting that people should put glue on their pizza, or ChatGPT confidently telling users that the word 'strawberry' contains two R's, it wasn't hard to see where this tech would end up. What has surprised me is the speed at which these underlying models have improved.
I am excited to see how far I will go down this path that I had only ever dipped my toe into the water of before. Already, I have used Codex to help rapidly improve Pocket Tutor, a web platform for music tutors; I’ve made an iPad app, Passing Notes; I’ve made a website for jazz musicians to look up the best recordings of jazz standards; and I’ve used it to redesign my personal website, as well as creating Lines & Spaces.